The data, models, and methods behind every spread, total, and bet on this site — from a one-page overview to the full handicapping reference series.
One-page tour of the full prediction pipeline — data, models, tuning, scoring.
Why this reference exists, and the five numbers to memorize.
How books set & move lines, the vig, sharp vs. square money, Closing Line Value.
Power ratings, Elo, key numbers (3 & 7), spread↔probability, QB & home field.
Pace, points per drive, weather (wind is king), game script.
Every predictive input ranked, with regression-to-the-mean caveats.
Ridge ratings, walk-forward validation, calibration, market-aware blending.
Edge identification, de-vigging, fractional Kelly, CLV.
How the theory maps to our codebase, and what's next.
Closing Line Value, where to get open/close odds, and the capture/backtest tools.
docs/handicapping/.
Educational / modeling reference — not betting advice.